Thursday, November 18

Experts are wrong, part 82,465

Greg Ross at "Futility Closet" shows once again that the so-called 'experts' don't just get it wrong, but utterly, ludicrously so.

Excerpts from the Harvard Economic Society’s Weekly Letter, 1929-1930:

  • Nov. 16, 1929: “[A] severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability.”
  • Jan. 18, 1930: “With the underlying conditions sound, we believe that the recession in general business will be checked shortly and that improvement will set in during the spring months.”
  • May 17, 1930: “General prices are now at bottom and will shortly improve.”
  • Aug. 30, 1930: “Since our monetary and credit structure is not only sound but unusually strong … there is every prospect that the recovery which we have been expecting will not be long delayed.”
  • Sept. 20, 1930: “[R]ecovery will soon be evident.”
  • Nov. 15, 1930: “[T]he outlook is for the end of the decline in business during the early part of 1931, and steady … revival for the remainder of the year.”

In 1931, strapped by the depression, the Harvard Economic Society’s Weekly Letter ceased publication.

Might keep this in mind the next time some gubmint doofus--whether a pol or a Harvard PhD--makes some sweeping declaration about how all is well....

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