Tuesday, February 22

What happens next in Libya and Egypt?

Someone once said that in hindsight, everything is obvious. If you think about that, it implies that on occasion, it should be possible to predict the future. You just have to know what facts and observations are important to the solution.

The situation in Libya may be one of those times.

Libya has 6 million people, and a military of 45,000 or so. And the largest oil reserves in Africa.

Egypt has 82 million or so--most desperately poor. And quite a large military.

With Libya on the edge of civil war and its leader on the verge of fleeing, roughly half the Libyan armed forces have defected to the demonstrators. So it would be easy for Egyptian military forces to take the country.

Only two things keep that from happening: The forces of the Western nations that historically frown on such moves; and the Koranic principle that Muslim shouldn't kill Muslim.

Even if any western nations wanted to save Khadaffi, none is inclined to try any nation-saving at this particular time. Europe is paralyzed with fear and the U.S. is led by a socialist community organizer who wants the U.S. to do nothing on the world stage except bow to other leaders.

So the only remaining block is that alleged Koranic ban.

It'll be interesting to see how inventive the Imams get in creating reasons why that ban doesn't apply to Egypt invading Libya.

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